Week 6 Staff Predictions – Lions at Chiefs

The Lions and Chiefs are meeting as two teams going in opposite directions. The 4-1 Lions, winners of four straight, head into Arrowhead on Sunday Night Football to take on the 2-3 Chiefs in what was likely anticipated to be a game between two unbeatens when the schedule came out. However, something changed, and it is the Chiefs are simply not winning the close games this year. They were on an NFL-Record 17-straight one-score game wins, including 12-0 in 2024, but this year they are 0-3 and the mystic seems to be gone. They are still the Chiefs though, and the Lions aren't healthy, but this one still seems destined to be a tight one with both teams putting plenty of points on the board and probably a one-score game when it is all said and done.

After five weeks, there is finally a new leader in the prediction game sitting at 4-1 and only off Lions cumulative score by nine points. Nipping at his heels is prior leader Brent, with the same 4-1 record, but off by 15 points after overestimating the Lions output the last few weeks. Mike and Chris continue in their dead heat, with each sporting identical 3-2 records and within four points of one another. Could be some serious separation this week, as Dan went with the Lions and Brent went with the Chiefs, so points won't matter with one likely being 5-1 and the other 4-2. On to the Picks!!!

Mike

Week 6 we have a matchup of 2 Heavyweights in the NFL, however one is struggling while the other appears to be finding their footing, however and old foe (injuries) has raised its ugly head once again. The Lions lead the Chiefs in almost every category on Offense and Defense. That does not mean anything in the NFL as we have seen over the years.

The Chiefs still have one of the best QBs in the NFL, and while Travis Kelce is dreaming about becoming a Showgirl he is still a valuable weapon at the TE spot. The Chiefs running and passing offense still rank in the Top 10 in the NFL. So, this might suggest a very evenly matched offenses with the Lions ranking 1st or 2nd in almost all categories. Looking at Defense the Chiefs are the middle of the pack with the one big glaring exception that I am sure John Morton has been looking at - they are giving up on average 123 yards per game while the Lions average 134 yards per game on the ground. This is an area the Lions can exploit.

It will all come down to how Jim Spagnoulo can find ways to slow down the running game and put pressure on Jared Goff. For the Lions it is going to be how the Defensive Secondary holds up and if the Lions can continue to generate pressure on Mahomes. A big road win for the Lions.

Lions 24, Chiefs 17

Brent

The Detroit Lions enter this week’s matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs riding a four-game winning streak. The Lions offense, after setting a record last season as the 4th highest scoring offense in NFL history, are on pace to exceed their totals from last season. In contrast, the Chiefs are coming off a devastating loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars where their star defender Chris Jones was criticized for not trying to stop the Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence where Jones claimed he “thought he was down.” Jones will bring his A game this week.

There has been a lot of chatter in NFL and media circles questioning the Chiefs and whether their best days are behind them. The Super Bowl exposed them as a team that cannot hold up to strong defensive fronts. The Detroit Lions have a strong defensive front and linebackers that make plays. The strength of the Lions defense is stopping the run and forcing teams to throw the football. The Chiefs are likely to take advantage of a banged-up Lions secondary given they are down both starting cornerbacks. The key to the game is whether Aidan Hutchinson and the other defensive linemen can bring enough pressure to impact the Chiefs ability to throw the football. My prediction, even with the Lions starting cornerbacks, would be a shootout. Without them, the Lions will have to overcome injuries to both starting safeties as Brian Branch has an injured foot and Kerby Joseph has a banged-up knee.

Offensively, the Lions offense is clicking on all cylinders. Amon-Ra St Brown is banged up but make no mistake about it, he will be impactful in this game. Jared Goff played his 70th game as a Detroit Lion (after playing 69 as a starter for the LA Rams) and continues to play as effectively as any quarterback in the NFL. There were rumblings last season for him to win the NFL MVP Award until his five turnovers in Houston last season. Expect calls for him to win the NFL MVP to pick up if he continues the pace he is on this season. He is second in the NFL with a 120.7 quarterback rating and leads the NFL with 12 touchdown passes. Expect the Lions to be able to move the football and if the offensive line can hold up, the Lions will exceed (174 total points in five games) their 34.8 point per game average.

In the end, Patrick Mahomes will take advantage of the Lions beat up secondary and the Chiefs will out duel the Lions 38-35.

Chiefs 38, Lions 35

Chris

The oddsmakers may as well have this game as a pick 'em. Detroit's riding a four-game hot streak fueled by opportunistic defense and that plus-seven turnover margin tells the whole story. We've been taking the ball away and making teams pay for mistakes.

The challenge comes when Patrick Mahomes starts doing his Houdini act in the pocket. Our secondary depth gets tested when he extends plays, and those backup corners better be ready for extended coverage assignments they haven't faced yet. But here's the thing about confidence: beating Kansas City 21-20 two seasons ago planted a seed that this Lions team can hang with anyone.

John Morton's offense has found another gear since that Week 1 stumble, and even championship-level defenses struggle when our skill position players get rolling. Mahomes will make his plays, but Detroit's offense proves too balanced and too explosive down the stretch.

Jake Bates connects when it matters most because that's just how this season is unfolding.

Lions 27, Chiefs 24

Dan

This is a game the Lions look destined to lose. They are super beat up, especially in the secondary, and the Chiefs are about as healthy as a team can be. However, the Chiefs are not playing like the Chiefs of the last few years. Sure, the offensive numbers are there, with the Chiefs ranking near or within the Top 10 in most Offensive categories. But guess what, the Lions offense is ranked at or near the top FIVE in all major offensive categories.

Where the Chiefs are starting to look vulnerable is on defense. While their pass defense statistically is still one of the best, I think this is a bit if a misnomer because teams have had major success running the ball against the Chiefs and trying to keep Mahomes and company off the field, so why pass the ball. Couple this with the Chiefs rush defense and pass rush being bottom third in many major categories, and the Lions rush offense and deadly play-action-pass offense top 10, I think this is a recipe for disaster for the Chiefs.

The X factor for this game is the Officiating crew and how they handle Chiefs RT Juwan Taylor. He is the most penalized player in the NFL right now, and this crew loves to call Offensive Holding, False Start and Illegal Formation, everything teams have been complaining about to the NFL for the last few years, and the three penalties Taylor has been flagged for the most.

Bottom line, this will likely be a shootout due to the Lions secondary being ripe for exploitation by the Chiefs and Mahomes. In the end, I think a great offensive game plan and Juwan Taylor finally being held to the standard of the NFL rulebook will make the difference, and the Lions will squeeze out a tight victory on Sunday night.

Lions 35, Chiefs 31