Week 11 Staff Predictions – Lions at Eagles

Welcome back, Dan Campbell! DC took back the reins on play calling from John Morton last week, and the beast was unleashed, with a resounding 44-22 whupping handed to the Washington Commanders.

On to the next team from the NFC East, which is the division leading Philadelphia Eagles and their 7-2 record. However, that record is a bit of smoke and mirrors, as this team has been struggling to patch up holes in their defense all year and are simply not performing at their Super Bowl level caliber selves. When you start to deep dive the stats, especially considering the Lions' resurgence on offense with Campbell running the show. This is an absolute mismatch on paper, with the Lions significantly better in almost all major stats on offense and defense. Throw in that of their seven wins, only one (a 38-20 win against NYG) was by more than one score, and it feels like the Eagles are getting luckier than being good. There is a massive injury discrepancy here, as the Lions are hurting on defense once again and the Eagles are fully healthy, but karma is a fickle lady, and there is a strong possibility that she is going to come for all those a-hole Eagles fans running their mouths all week.

The year-long battle for picking superiority didn't change much last week, as expected. Everyone took the Lions, but the tie breaker, should it come into play, does not favor the current leader, Brent at 7-2. His one-game lead is great, but he is off by 51 pts on the aggregate Lions' score, while second place Dan sits one game back (6-3) and is only off by 6 pts. Mike and Chris (5-4) remain two games back, and both are sitting at 24 pts on their tiebreaker. There will either be a tie or Brent pulling away after this week, as three of us believe in Campbell and the Lions, even with the injuries, and one of us doesn't...

Mike

Week 11 has our Gridiron Warriors heading into the not so friendly confines of Lincoln Financial Field to take on the Philadelphia Eagles. On paper this looks like an easy game for the Lions, but they don't play the games on paper. The Eagles offense is middle of the pack across the board; Saquon Barkley is having a down year for him - 15th in the NFL rushing. However, we all know this team can explode at any time on Offense.

The Eagle's Defense is Mid pack as well at 18th and giving up 328 yds per game. They give up 2-9 yds passing and 118 yards rushing. This all looks good for the Lions but as my good friend Brent Crider says: "On any given Sunday".

The Lions come into the game trying to hit their stride after a great offensive performance against the struggling Washington Commanders. Head Coach Dan Campbell took over the play calling duties, and the Lions offense looked like the Lions' offense again. Is this a one-time "lucky" shot, or will the Head Coach be able to keep his hot streak going against the Eagles?

The Defense is coming off a respectable showing, only allowing 22 pts to the Commanders. Noticeably absent were the Defense Ends/Edge rushers from this game. The Lions did not generate as much pressure as previous games, but was it by design? To try and contain the running of QB Marcus Mariota ?? We will see Sunday Night.

The Lions Special Teams were a bit better on coverage but had another FG blocked. They need to tighten things up.

Overall these are the 2 most talented teams in the NFC and possibly in the NFL. It will be a tough game for both of us. These are the games that FOOTBALL fans look forward to. Dan Campbell is already pumped up for the game, and I am sure by gametime the players will be as well.

In a close game, I am going to go with the Lions.

Lions 24, Eagles: 21

Brent

The Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles enter this week’s matchup leading the NFC North and NFC Central. The Eagles enter the contest with a full roster and good health and will have a raucous crowd speckled with the well-traveled Lions fans. In contrast, the Lions will be missing 50% of their starting secondary and their Pro Bowl TE Sam LaPorta.

This matchup has the Lions winning every statistical category except for total points given up. The Eagles do have a problem with wide receiver AJ Brown posting how bored he is. Make no mistake about it, this Eagles team is loaded with talent on both sides of the football and on any given week, can compete with the best teams in the NFL. However, the Lions have the same level of talent. In matchups like this, the home team can have a distinct advantage.

Therefore, most prognosticators are picking the Eagles to beat the Lions. Given the health of the Eagles and the Lions injury situation, does not sway me to select the Eagles. The Lions offense under the direction of OC/DC Dan Campbell, will defeat the Eagles 38 to 35.

Lions 38, Eagles 35

Chris

The Lions walk into Lincoln Financial Field for a Sunday Night matchup that feels like a playoff preview. The central question: Can Jared Goff win over the middle of the field against the NFL's best coverage linebackers? Philly's Zack Baun and Nakobe Dean own that middle third, but attacking there is Detroit's bread and butter. Goff's 84.4 passing grade in that zone ranks eighth in the league.

Meanwhile, the Eagles' run game has been shockingly inconsistent. Saquon Barkley has more sub-three-yard-per-carry games than explosive ones since Week 2, and AJ Brown looks checked out. If Detroit's sixth-ranked run defense can contain Saquon and force Philly one-dimensional, this offense gets exposed.

Watch Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis on the interior versus Detroit's line, plus Jaelan Phillips against Penei Sewell on the edge. Those battles decide the game.

Goff makes enough plays, the defense holds, and the Lions prove they can win a playoff-caliber game under the lights.

Lions 28, Eagles 24

Dan

I am thrilled and a bit terrified at the same time as we approach Eagles Week in Philly. I think that Dan Campbell taking over play calls instantly covers up for any deficiencies with the defense (more on that later) as they should be able to be efficient and overcome a deficit the Eagles put on them. Being a hug stats guy, I looked at the teams' rankings and performance and felt this game was an absolute mismatch on paper. The Eagles are worse in almost every statistical Offense and Defensive category you can think of. However, it's a night game, in Philly. Last time the Lions had a Sunday Night Football road night game, the Chiefs and the officials made sure the Lions left with an ‘L’.

Back to the stats. The Eagles are all over the place, with a handful of Top 10 passing stats and only Pts against and Passing TDs in Top 10 n defense. Otherwise, they are mostly in the bottom third of the NFL in all the remaining major stat categories. Their Pass defense is doing well, because of their CBs, but they are awful at Sacks and only middle of the pack at Hurries and Pressures. Throw in they blitz only 21% of the time (19th in the NFL) and are one of the worst at defending play-action–passing, and yeah, the Lions Offense has a shot. The Lions Defense, despite a few rough outings and a bunch of injuries, is still top 12 in every major category except Passing TDs allowed. I expect the Lions to be shorthanded in the defensive backfield again with the potential for Joseph, Arnold and Robertson to potentially be out. If so, the pass rush is going to have to be the key and get Hurts to move, while keeping him contained and force him to make bad throws.

Offensively, the Lions under Campbell would absolutely be leading the league in most major categories, as they are already no worse than 11th with the vast majority being top 6 despite Morton's inefficient play calling. The Eagles are bottom third, and it sure appears that the Saquon Barkley is wearing out. In his 7 ½ seasons in the NFL, he has 2,043 touches, plus another 773 touches at Penn State in three years. He is on pace for career lows (over a full season) in Yards, YPC and TDs, although he is still a threat catching the ball out of the backfield. I expect the Lions to exceed what they have been averaging with Campbell calling plays, as he has a much better feel for down and distance and setting up the next play than Morton has shown.

Bottom line, the Lions will win because they are the better team right now, possibly in a shootout if our DBs aren't healthy. Looking for a moderately high scoring game, putting up close to 40 points again.

Lions 38, Eagles 27