Week 10 Staff Predictions – Lions at Commanders

Good Grief, that was a painful game to watch last week, shadowing the Green Bay Packers opening season loss in many ways. The Lions came off the bye, as healthy as they have been in many weeks, and played terrible against a mediocre Vikings team that didn't really outperform them in that 27-24 loss. Self-inflicted problems and three key plays cost the Lions the game, which they honestly deserved to lose. They also saw a significant number of new injuries pile up across multiple positions, but thankfully a team that is just as beat up, if not more, in the Commanders are this week's opponent.

The Lions are now 5-3, with the Commanders sitting at 3-6 leading to a massive opening line for the Lions with backup QB Marcus Mariota once again starting for the Commanders. Will talk about injuries later, but the offensive comparisons is a statistical mismatch, as the Lions are still Top 5 in Points (2nd), Passing and Rushing TDs, Passer rating and lead over the Commanders in pretty much everything other than Rushing Yards per game. The defense isn't much better for Washington, as they are bottom five in a lot of stats, including TDs allowed, TOs created, missed tackles and so on. The X-factor here will be the injuries, as that impacts both teams. The Lions appear to be without Kerby Joseph again in addition to the guys on IR, but will have most of their OL likely playing, but nicked up. the Commanders will be down their Starting QB, WR, and most of their DE depth (four of them are on IR), and likely have multiple defenders nicked up while playing.

The weekly battle for pick supremacy did not change as expected, as everyone picked, and missed, the Lions last week. So, the order is still the same with Brent, Dan and then Mike and Chris in a dead heat with both having the exact same amount of points off from the Lions aggregate total for the year. With the picks this week, everyone is STILL on the Blue Kool-Aid and believe the Lions will win in comfortable fashion with the exception of Chris, who thinks it will be a bit closer than expected. So, no change in standings, but those tie-breaker points will change again.

Mike

Week 10 in the NFL has our favorite team travelling to the Nations Capital to face the Washington Commanders. This is a battle of the beaten up teams. Both teams come with a number of injuries across the board.

The Lions are hurting on the Offensive Line although it looks like All Pro (and best RT in all of Football) Penei Sewell will be playing the Lions will need to replace LG Christian Mahogany and LT Taylor Decker is fighting nagging issues. The Commanders biggest loss is QB Jayden Daniels and WR Terry McLaurin.

The Lions Offense will look to bounce back from a below average performance last week against the Vikes. HC Dan Campbell says he would like to get RB David Montgomery and WR Isaac TeSlaa more involved. I hope this accurate in regards to Montgomery. The offense looks more in balance when he is running up the middle and saving the quick hitters for Jahymer Gibbs. I would look for the Offense to come out swinging against the 28th ranked Defense of the Commanders.

On the Defensive side of the ball the Lions need to stop the run, that is where it all starts. The Lions gave up 142 yards on the ground to the Vikes. The Commanders are ranked 4th in the NFL in Rushing Offense and average approx 140 yards a game on the ground. The Lions 11th ranked defense against the Run must step up and stop the Commanders. I think they will. The DL is healthy and with Alim McNeil back and with a few games under his belt he will be a factor.

My key to this game is Special Teams. The Lions have been below average on Special Teams compared to last year, in terms of Kickoff and Punt return coverage. The blocked field goal last week helped the Vikings win that game. Typically Dave Fipp coached Special Teams are top notch, I am looking for a bounce back game from this unit this week.

The Lions are 8.5 favorites, that is a big number to cover in the NFL. The Commanders are banged up and are starting a backup QB down a No 1 WR.

Lions: 24, Washington 17

Brent

The Lions enter this week on the road against the team that ended their playoffs last season. The Washington Commanders are not the same team that the Detroit Lions faced in January. The 3-6 Commanders enter this game as an 8.5 point underdog and have lost their franchise quarterback for the remainder of the season. In addition to the Commanders loss of Jayden Daniels, they have been down two of their starting wide receivers for a combined 12 games. Despite this, the Commanders rank 10th in run block win rate since Marcus Mariota took over as quarterback. The Commanders would be well advised to commit to the run against the Lions rush defense that has slid to 9th in the NFL in stopping the run.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Commanders lost three of their four starting defensive ends, As a result, the Commanders are ranked 28th in the NFL in stopping the run. The Lions should be able to run the ball given their offensive line will have four of five starters playing. Dan Campbell indicated the Lions commitment to correcting the offensive line deficiencies against the Vikings. Expect the Lions to be effective in running the ball against a weakened Commanders defensive front.

Expect the Lions to put on a strong performance against a wounded Commanders team. The Lions focus this week is on improving the Offense, Defense and Special Teams. Lions will run through the Commanders to a 31-14 win at FedEx field and set up a showdown with the Philadelphia Eagles next Sunday night

Lions 31, Commanders 14

Chris

Washington limps into this one missing Jayden Daniels, Marcus Lattimore, and any semblance of momentum after dropping four straight. Meanwhile, Detroit is still licking wounds from that Minnesota debacle, shuffling offensive linemen like a desperate poker player hoping for a better hand.

Here's the thing: Dan Campbell-coached teams don't lose two in a row. They haven't in three years. That's not just a stat. That's culture. And after getting embarrassed coming off a bye week, you better believe this Lions team is showing up with something to prove.

John Morton's has pressure on him too. The offensive line situation is a mess. Christian Mahogany's out, Penei Sewell's questionable (but likely playing), and Taylor Decker's shoulder seems to be hanging by a thread. But Washington's D ranks 28th in total defense, and their secondary is a disaster without Lattimore. Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Sam LaPorta should feast. If Goff gets clean enough pockets, this might get ugly fast.

The Commanders will lean on rookie running back Jacori Croskey-Merritt and hope Marcus Mariota channels his 2015 magic. Spoiler: he won't. Jack Campbell and the Lions' front seven will shut down the run, and without Daniels' dual-threat ability, Washington's offense becomes painfully one-dimensional.

Detroit's special teams need redemption after gifting Minnesota 17 points on short fields. No more blocked field goals. No more 61-yard kickoff returns. Clean that up, establish the run with David Montgomery early, and let Goff work the intermediate passing game against a vulnerable secondary.

This one stays closer than it should because of Detroit's offensive line uncertainty, but the Lions pull away late. Expect a gritty, grinding win that sets them up for the real test next week in Philadelphia.

Lions 24, Commanders 20

Dan

Sigh. So last week sucked and it was a very winnable game right up until the end. A handful of key mistakes, two by the special teams, led to that game slipping away from the Lions. However, it's time to move onto this week's game against the Commanders.

After losing Jayden Daniels to an elbow injury in meaningless time of a blowout loss last week, the Commanders season is on the brink. They can either become a wounded animal and come out fighting, or they can roll over and pack it in like the team that is third to the bottom in the NFL with a scant chance of making the playoffs. Only four teams, and none since the 2006 Houston Texans, have started a season 3-6 and qualified for the Playoffs.

The weather in DC calls for Light Rain and Breezy conditions, so I think the ground game will be important, and the Commanders are in the bottom third of the NFL in most of the meaningful Rush Defense stats (and Passing ones for that matter) So I think the Lions will be able to attack in a variety of ways. Last week, the Lions were under immense Blitz pressure from the Vikings who are 2nd in the NFL in blitz rate at 40% of drop backs. The Commanders only Blitz 25% of the time and are bottom third in sacks, pressure rate and second overall in missed tackles. So, I think this is the week that the Lions offense gets back to its explosive ways. There appears to be either a size of speed gap between the Lions skill players and the Commanders back seven, and I think that is where this game will be won.

As for the Lions defense, it also appears to be back and relatively healthy, so even though Mariota is as much of a threat with his legs, I think the pass rush will keep him contained and force turnovers and sack him multiple times. Likewise, the Commanders rushing game will be taking a hit with Daniels (2nd on team) so keeping Mariota and Croskey-Merritt contained along with not giving up reverses to Deebo Samuel by the LBs and Safeties.

Bottom line, I am sticking with the Lions and believe they will pull away late as the Commanders are a hurting bunch that is not near the same level that won in Detroit last year in the playoffs.

Lions 27, Commanders 17