The Case Against Jarrad Davis’ 5th Year Option

Coming off a promising 9-7 campaign in 2016 led by Jim Caldwell, the Lions found themselves sitting in the middle of the 1st round of a 2017 draft that wasn’t an overly strong year. Dominated by offensive players (QBs Trubisky, Mahomes and Watson and RBs McCaffrey and Fournette) in the first 12 picks, the defensive players talent level saw a drop before the Lions were on the clock at #21. Bob Quinn decided to play it fairly safe and go with an inside LB in Jarrad Davis that was impressive, but had a lower ceiling (and less boom or bust chance) instead of Reuben Foster (taken at #31 by SF.)

In hindsight, Quinn made the correct LB choice, as Foster has multiple legal issues and was suspended and subsequently released after two years by the 49ers. But there is still a question as to whether Davis has done enough in Detroit to earn the coveted 5th year rookie option. The CBA that recently passed had an update that impact the Fifth-Year options for the 2017 draft class, notably guaranteeing the entire contract (instead of for injury only) and eliminating compensation tied to draft selection. Reports are indicating under the new calculations, in addition to being fully guaranteed, Davis will be slated to make ~$10 Million instead of ~$7.83 Million for the avg of the 3-25th LB salaries for 2020. That would put him right around the 22nd highest paid LB (both ILB and OLB) and tied with Jamie Collins for the LB lead on the Lions. For ILBs, that would make him the 11th highest paid, tied with the likes of Blake Martinez, Eric Kendricks and Benardrick McKinney, all of who are considered superior players to Davis.

I think the above info alone will cause the Lions to pass on exercising the deal, as Davis has simply not played to the level of a 1st Rd draft choice consistently enough. In addition, the Lions have a couple of potential replacements in Jalani Tavai and Reggie Ragland (only signed for 2020) on the roster that could fill Davis role moving forward.

I don’t expect the Lions to cut Davis this year, as he is slated to only make a base salary of $1,960,798 this year with a cap hit of $3,490,197 thanks to the addition of the prorated $1,529,399 portion of his signing bonus. The dead cap hit is just the signing bonus amount, so the Lions could move on with a net $431,399 to use on another player (Dead cap – Base) if they choose to cut Davis before his contract runs out. As I stated above, that is unlikely to happen, because Davis is still outperforming his rookie deal, it is just the 5th year option money and guarantees that cause the heartburn.

The Lions will have to make this decision soon, as the deadline is Sunday May 3rd 2020 to pick up the option. If I had to guess, I would expect the Lions to decline the fifth year, but if Davis plays well enough, offer him an extension more in line with his play and team contributions somewhere during the 2020 season.