Offseason Analysis: Will the Lions be a Better Defense team in 2020?

Since the last second of the 23-20 loss to the Green Bay Packers last December, the Lions seemed bound and determined to not only remake their defense, but do it in such a way that it fit the vision that Coach Matt Patricia needs to effectively execute his defense to it maximum potential. With the NFL Draft and the initial wave of Free Agency complete, I thought it would be interesting to take a look at whether the projected 2020 Detroit Lions Defense is better off than the 2019 version that did so poor. With that in mind, here are a few reasons why I have come toy the conclusion that the Lions Defense in 2020 will be significantly better than 2019, injuries notwithstanding:

Defensive Coaching staff gets some fresh eyes

So, this topic has been a bit of an elephant in the room now since Patricia was hired back in 2018. Unfortunately for the Lions, New England, Patricia’s former employer, made it all the way to the Super Bowl before losing to the Eagles. The big problem is that meant Patricia couldn’t officially be hired until Feb 5th and get a staff cobbled together until after many other teams had snatched up assistants. His Defensive hires looked odd from the beginning, specifically the hiring of Paul Pasqualoni at DC and retaining Al Golden, but moving him from TEs to LBs. Fast forward three years, and those two coaches are no longer with the Lions, having been replaced with Cory Undlin at DC and Tyrone McKenzie as LBs coach. McKenzie looks like a natural fit, having played for NE and coached under former NE LB Mike Vrabel with the Titans as ILB coach the last two seasons. Undlin broke into coaching as a one-year defensive assistant with NE, but has cut his teeth working primarily with DBs on some of the best units (Jacksonville, Denver and Eagles) the last several years and coached in three Super Bowls, winning two.

I don’t think it was an accident that the LB coach along with the DC were the areas targeted for changes, as they were responsible for many of the weaknesses the Lions Defense suffered through the last couple years. Golden in particular hurt the team, failing to develop Jarrad Davis, Reeves-Maybin and getting more out of Kennard. With Pasqualoni, I think the game had passed him by, and once Patricia realized he needed more than a figurehead calling plays, they found a way to gracefully let his mentor go for the good of the team.

The defense has players that want to be here and will play within the system

The overhaul reminds me of the sequence in the movie “Moneyball”, where Billy Beane (Brad Pitt) has enough of his manager not playing the players he acquired to make Peter Brand’s (Jonah Hill) sabermetrics-built team effective. So, what does Beane do, he gets rid of the guys that are being played that Art Howe (Philip Seymour Hoffman) keeps playing instead of Brand’s guys so he is forced to play the team that Brand’s analytics says is the most competitive.

While this example is a bit extreme and not 100% the Lions situation, I think there is some validity there, with Patricia/Quinn in the Beane/Brand role, and holdover players from the prior administration (Mayhew/Caldwell) playing the role of Art Howe. Gone from the start of last seas on are three strong personalities in Darius Slay, Damon Harrison and Quandre Diggs, that were all very good players, but were resisting the changes that Patricia needed to make to both the scheme and the attitude. Their replacements were S Duron Harmon and DT Danny Shelton, bit NE guys along with Desmond Trufant and Jeffrey Okudah (ATL and Rookie from tOSU) that are known business first low-drama type of players.

Slay, Harrison and Diggs will likely have several excellent seasons still in the tank, but the Partriot’s way is to shut up, do your job and do what is best for the team. Moving on from these guys and replacing them with comparable (or better) talent with the right attitude will go a long way towards stabilizing the defense and getting the most out of the youngsters.

The one-for-one talent replacements on defense

Below is a list of the Lions Defense 2018 projected opening game starters and their direct (and indirect) 2020 replacements:

Damon Harrison < Danny Shelton: In a normal year, Harrison would have been easily been considered a better player than Shelton. However, the 2019 Damon Harrison held out even though he didn’t want to be a Lion, got injured and ended up having a down year. Meanwhile, Shelton is five years younger, and outside of the knocked down passes that Harrison was really good at, his career numbers are right in line with what Harrison had produced. Throw in the bonus of playing in the NE Defensive system, and Shelton is clearly an upgrade over a declining Harrison, who is still unsigned as of this being published.

Slight Edge Shelton

Slay/Melvin < Trufant/Okudah: Of all the changes, this one is the hardest to evaluate. If I went solely Trufant vs Slay, then I think Trufant is a bit of a downgrade from Slay, even though they are the same size and age. Slay has simply produced more over his career, leading the NFL in Passes Defensed since he entered the league. However, this isn’t simply a one-for-one with Trufant and Slay, as we have to throw 1st Rd CB Jeff Okudah into the mix and look at a pairing of Okudah/Trufant vs Slay/Melvin, and I think it is clear that Trufant and Okudah, at least on paper, should be better, if not superior, to what Slay and Melvin produced last season.

Clear Edge: Okudah/Trufant

Devon Kennard < Jamie Collins: Let me preface by saying Kennard played his butt off and did everything he was asked to do. He played the run, rushed the passer and produced modest success the last few years, especially tying his career high with 7 sacks each of the last two seasons. However, even though Collins is two years older than Kennard, he is something that Kennard isn’t, and that is a three-down back who can cover sideline-to-sideline as well as RBs and TEs. Collins hit triple digit tackles twice in his career and hit 80+ two other times. He also picked off 10 passes in addition to 30 passes defended to go along with his 24.5 sacks. Kennard’s career best? 61 tackles one year, 23.5 acks (14 with Lions), 1 INT and only 8 passes defended. If Collins can give the Lions a couple more years of product like he has last season, then this is not even close.

Significant Edge: Collins

Quandre Diggs < Duron Harmon: Although Diggs was traded mid-season, this was the first ripple on getting the defense stabilized, and I think that a two-year older Harmon is an upgrade for the secondary due to his intangibles and of course contract. Diggs had some injuries last year that slowed him down, but even before the game-four hamstring against the Chiefs, fans knew something wasn’t right. Unlike the 2018 season, when Diggs was truly the last line of defense, his play had slipped and he was missing many tackles he made before, along with talking bad angles and being out of position. Throw in the injuries and big personality, and it is clear why the Lions decided to move on to protect their investment in youngsters Will Harris and Tracy Walker. Unfortunately, Harris proved he wasn’t quite ready to step in like Walker had done the year before, so the Lions traded for Patriots veteran Harmon, who not only is a Patricia guy, but has been a steady producer for the NE secondary and a willing teacher to the young players often brought in to compete for his job.

Slight Edge: Harmon

Conclusion: My analysis concludes that the improvement should be pretty clear, as the OLB, CB, S and NT positions were all improved a bit to a lot with the replacements that Quinn has brought in via, trade, FA and the Draft. The players in many cases are of similar production, but you cannot overlook that most of the guys now want to be here and know how to play as a team-first environment. These intangibles cannot be overlooked, as the cohesiveness that comes from that will make the defensive unit more technically sound, and allow for a more efficient performance in 2020.

Clear Edge: 2020 Roster Replacements

When you look at these three major points in addition to simply having better depth, I think it is logical and obvious that there should be raised expectations of major improvements in the 2020 season. The defense cost the team multiple wins last year both before and after Stafford hurt his back. Having said that, the hard truth is that if they don’t improve, there are no more excuses and everyone will likely be looking for work.