Making the Case for the Lions to Trade Down

While the Detroit Lions have found themselves drafting in the top 5 more times in the last 11 years than I would have liked, they always seemed to grab their guy and never really entertained any offers to trade back and stockpile some extra picks.  Those three opportunities were in 2009 (Mathew Stafford #1 Overall), 2010 (Ndamukong Suh #2 Overall) and in 2013 (Ezekial Ansah #5 Overall), with each one presenting a hold-your-breath-moment for every Lions fan hoping to net a haul like WAS did from NO when Mike Ditka traded his entire 1999 draft plus 1st and 3rd picks in 2000 for Ricky Williams.

Looking back through those drafts at any top 10 trades and what players were taken after the Lions made their selection, and I am convinced that they made the right choice to select all three players instead of dealing back for extra picks.  All three were pro bowlers, and both the 2009 and 2013 drafts had pretty bad Top 10s outside of the Lions players selected.  The Suh draft was littered with talent in Top 10, and no trades took place until #11 and #12, with teams moving back to #16 and beyond, missing the talent at the top.

Having said all that, here we are sitting on the eve of the 2020 NFL draft with the Lions apparently in control of the draft with the #3 overall pick.  It sure seems to be a foregone conclusion that Joe Burrow is going to CIN and that Chase Young will go home to WAS.  That leaves the Lions in control of the draft at #3 with several impact defenders in CB Jeffrey Okudah, LB/S Isiah Simmons or IDL Derrick Brown along with the top OT and next two QBs on the board. Anyone that covets Tua or Hebert or possibly even one of the OT or Simmons will need to deal with the Lions, and unlike the other years I mention above, this finally has the feel that the Lions may actually pull of a deal, yet still get their guy. 

A deal is still contingent on finding a trade partner who covets a player, so that variable looms large.  You also have the unlikely scenario that Chase Young slips past the Redskins due to them trading out or taking an OT, which should immediately negate any trade opportunities.  In that scenario, Bob Quinn would be doing a virtual sprint to the podium to turn in his card with Young’s name on it so quickly that the Giants would feel the breeze all the way over in New Jersey.

Let's dispense with the Young fantasy and assume a trade does take place, with the likely partners being Miami or the Chargers, with each competing over the QBs Tua and/or Hebert. I personally believe the likely partner is Miami with the Lions getting multiple picks in return (#5, #26, #56 and possibly doing a later rd. pick swap in Rds. 5, 6 or 7.)  This would allow Miami to get their QB, and the Lions to still grab one of Okudah or brown at #5 and fill in some depth at OL and WR with the extra picks.  The Giants are unlikely to go CB having used a 1st last year and spent heavily in FA at the position, but they will likely go Simmons or OT to protect last year’s 1st rounder Daniel Jones.

Regardless how Thursday night shakes out, the Lions are in a Win/Win whether they stay put at #3 and take an impact defender, or trade back a bit and get one and pick up extra draft picks in the process.  While the unicorn scenario is Miami giving up #5 and #18 in addition to some Day 3 picks and the Lions still able to draft their guy, I would be happy with just their guy at this point.