David Montgomery...Staying or going?
- DB Keener
- 2 days ago
- 5 min read
Brad Holmes had his annual end-of-year press event last week and while there was plenty of nuggets dropped about player health, accountability for not making the playoffs and much more, one thing that really grabbed the attention of the Lions fan base was the status of RB David Montgomery. Everyone knew that Monty's numbers were down this year and he had recently made some cryptic social media posts that indicated he may not be happy with his role or the Lions or both. Holmes comments didn't exactly end the discussion:
Do you expect David Montgomery to be here next year?
"Tough year for him, in terms of lack of touches...I'm not saying we went into it planning for it to be that way. I thought he handled it like a pro, and so look, those are discussions that we're gonna have to have a lot more in-depth in terms of, you know, what is the best plan for him going forward you know. Is it somewhere else, whatever the case may be, but just really appreciate everything he has done for us if it does end up going that way. I hope it doesn't, because we love David Montgomery, he's a good football player and wish we would have been able to get more utilization from him, I know Dan feels the same way. Umm, but, you know those are conversations we are going to have to have cause got a lot of respect for that player, umm he deserves to be in a situation where his skillset can be utilized and so um, yeah we love for it to be here but if it can't be here, umm, you know, then you have to just see what you can work out the best for him."
Holmes takes the question and discusses the Monty situation from 36:25 - 37:35 in the video.
Of course, the vast majority of the reaction form the Lions Media and fans has been that Monty is already gone, but I am not so certain. When you start bringing in impacts such as the salary cap and replacement value cost and throw in a dash of logic and common sense, then it isn't quite so clear. Regardless, a decision may come fairly quickly, as Montgomery has a Contract Trigger that is effective 03/13/26 that takes $1.75M in salary that is guaranteed only for injury and makes it fully guaranteed. Having said that, below are the cases laid out why Montgomery will or won't be a Lions in 2026, and the overwhelming logic and reasoning is that Sonic and Knuckles should ride together at least one more season:
The Case for why Montgomery stays with the Lions (at least one more year)
Salary Cap Impact and replacement Cost
Monty is currently the 12th highest RB in the NFL by APY and has a $6M salary next year and cap hit of $8,370,833 if he stays with Detroit.
For the Lions to Let Monty go by trade or cut Pre-June 1st, it will cost them $4.862,501 in Dead cap with a realized savings of $3,508,332 which is a net savings of $1,354169 if he was on the roster for the year.
However, the rub is that is how much cap dollars you would have available to spend to find a replacement and net zero the money alone on the exchange, which doesn't even include any draft picks that may have to be used as part of the replacement process.
Lions return on Trade/Cut would be Net-Negative
What do the Lions get out of this? They would be losing a very good football player, clubhouse leader and all-around good guy. This is still a business, and you cannot be making decisions with your feelings or heart even if it's the "right thing to do" by the player.
Trade
Pick would have to blow their socks off. At least a 2nd or High 3rd. Anything from a 4th or lower and it's a gamble and may have to be used to replace Monty.
It's unlikely a bidding war would erupt for a 29-year-old RB that has base salary of $6M, and Monty likely would have a list of teams he would be willing to go to, further eroding your trade options and return.
See replacement Costs above
Cut
There is little benefit here other than net cap savings which would have to be used in part to replace Montgomery
See Replacements Costs Above
Replacement Options are a Gamble and scarce
Any ideal FA running back replacement would need to fit a specific profile:
Veteran UDFA or Trade
Age of 25 or 26 currently
Power back Traits with capabilities as a runner, receiver, blocker and has vision and wiggle
Played 40%+ snaps on Offense with prior team
Willing to sign at least a two-year deal (likely 3-4)
Willing to take a Salary with Cap at ~$3-$4M APY
Rookie
Highly Productive in College that was healthy
A bigger back with capabilities as a runner, receiver, blocker and has vision and wiggle
Possibly using a draft pick to fill a hole that already was filled
Monty realizes his best opportunity to maximize his money, best chance at a title and prolong his career/body is with Detroit in 2026
Splitting carries with a younger back will keep him healthy like in 2025
Is he unwilling to uproot his young family multiple times in one of his last few years in the league
Next year's offensive flow may dictate more use and Playing Time
He will be 29 next year, an Age when players, specifically RBs, start to slip
In 2027, he will likely be cut or asked to renegotiate regardless of what team he is on, as a $8.5M salary and $1M roster bonus isn't sustainable for a 30-year-old backup RB.
The case for why Montgomery will be a former Lion
Only if Montgomery demanded it (Monty Initiated)
If Monty is so unhappy with his role and have an impact on the Locker Room, then you have to try and find a solution to offload him.
Lions will take a net-loss somewhere with this approach (Dead Cap, Loss of Good Player, replacement costs, lower trade return) because it is out in the open.
Lions approached him about a pay cut (Lions Initiated)
If the Lions don't feel that Montgomery is worth his signed contract, approached him about a pay cut and he balked, then they will probably have to try and move him.
This would likely result in a post-June 1st cut to maximize Cap Savings
Someone makes an offer too good to be true (Other Team Initiated)
If a team offers the Lions a 2nd or 3rd for Monty, you probably have to take that even with the dead money cap hit.